Economic Trends Research, June 2019
Domestic economy has worsened for seven months in a row
— While deterioration in manufacturing continues, last-minute demand appeared in part of the retail industry —
Overview of May 2019: Possibility of entering a recession phase
The economic diffusion index (DI) in June 2019 was 45.1, down 0.3 points from the previous month, and worsened for the seventh consecutive month. Stagnant exports and the cost burden remaining at a high level continued to exert a downward pressure on the domestic economy, and it may have entered a recession phase.
Future outlook: Uncertainty has further intensified
With the decrease in consumption due to the consumption tax hike, and concerns over the future of US-China trade friction, uncertainty about the domestic economy has further intensified.
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 By industry : Machinery manufacturing continued to show a deteriorating trend. Durable goods-related business in “retail” improved.
- 2 By size : All sizes worsened for the third consecutive month. US-China trade friction exerted a downward pressure on machinery and export-related businesses.
- 3 By region : Eight of the ten regions worsened. “Kinki” was also impacted by the convening of the G20 summit.
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