Economic Trends Research, October 2018
Economic diffusion index (DI) worsened for two months in a row, domestic economy is weak
— An increase in the cost burden resulting from the high price of crude oil and manpower shortage —
Overview of October 2018: Weak domestic economy
The economic diffusion index (DI) in October 2018 was 49.0, down 0.4 point from the previous month, and worsening for the second consecutive month. Fuel price hikes due to the high price of crude oil, and the serious manpower shortage have led to a further increase in the cost burden, which resulted in the weakened domestic economy.
Future outlook: Uncertainty has intensified
While capital investment is expected to continue to be strong, and last-minute demand due to the hike in the consumption tax rate is expected, there are concerns about the possibility of the high price of crude oil and overseas risks holding down the economy, and uncertainty has intensified.
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 By industry : Nine of the ten industries worsened. The cost burden increases against the backdrop of the high price of crude oil.
- 2 By size :“Small enterprises” worsened for the first time in four months. “Large enterprises” continue at a standstill.
- 3 By region : Seven of the ten regions worsened. A serious manpower shortage and fuel price hikes are also bearish factors.
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