Mar. 2016
Corporate Attitudes toward the Financial Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016
Increase in "sales and profits" in 1 out of 4 companies,but concerns emerging in consumer spending and Chinese economy
— Companies marked 60 points out of 100 for an assessment of Abenomics, down 3.9 points from the previous year. —
Introduction
The Japanese domestic economy is worsening nationally, due mainly to a decrease in public works that has deteriorated the regional economy, as well as to a downturn in business and household confidence affected by the turmoil of the financial markets arising from the slowdown in the Chinese and economies in resource-producing countries. In addition, while a threat to economic expansion has also derived from the loss of order opportunities due to a labor shortage, the economic trends in corporate earnings vary according to the region, industry sector and business scale.
Based on these developments, Teikoku Databank conducted a survey on corporate attitudes toward the financial forecast in fiscal 2016. This research was conducted in conjunction with the February 2016 TDB Trends Research.
*Survey Period: March 13-31, 2016; Companies Researched: 23,342: Valid Responses: 10,622 (Response Rate: 45.3%). Note that the survey on the financial forecast has been conducted since March 2009, and this is the 8th time.
*Details of this survey can be found on the dedicated Economic Trend Survey HP. (http://www.tdb-di.com).
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 25.9% of companies forecasted “an increase in both sales and profits” for fiscal year 2016. Although this is a 2.0 points decrease from the performance expectations of fiscal year 2015, “decrease in both sales and profit” have also decreased from the previous year by 3.9 points While expecting tough environments surrounding the business performance in fiscal year 2016, many companies project an improvement in business performance.
- 2 “A further downturn in consumer spending” is the number one reason for a downward trend in the financial forecast for fiscal year 2016, reaching 40.7%, followed by “external demand (deterioration of the Chinese economy)" and then “reduction of income.” In particular, the "deterioration of Chinese economy" has more than doubled from the previous survey (March 2015), highlighting an intensifying sense of crisis from China's economic downturn. Meanwhile, “recovery in consumer spending” became the number one reason for an upward trend in the financial forecast for fiscal year 2016, reaching 38.4%, followed by “an increase in public works” and “changes in crude oil/raw material prices.”
- 3 Companies marked 60.3 points out of 100 for an assessment of the Abe administration’s economic policy (Abenomics) achievements. Although the score of Abenomics has been more than 60 points for over more than three years, it dropped by 3.9 points in the latest survey from the previous year, suggesting increasingly stern eyes for Abenomics.